Humanity will be killed by biohackers

The end of the World, version #3: a new pandemic and biological weapons

Mikhail Sidorov, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 12.12.2012

(If you want more horror stories on this topic, read in the same "RG" two previous versions of the end of the world based on the materials of the same book: nuclear winter and the fall of an asteroid. Perhaps it should be continued, and it is very strange that none of these articles is marked "on the rights of advertising" – VM.)

Nature will no longer be able to create a disease capable of destroying humanity. Biotechnologies will cope with this task – in 10 years, deadly viruses will create biohackers on cheap home devices.

It is extremely unlikely that a disease will naturally appear on Earth that can destroy all people at once. Even in the case of a mutation of avian flu or bubonic plague, there will be survivors and those who are not ill. But the number of people is growing, and the number of "natural reactors" in which a new virus can be cultivated is also growing. Therefore, major pandemics in the spirit of the "Spanish woman" are possible. But even this event can happen only before powerful biotechnologies that can quickly create effective drugs mature.

In order for a natural pandemic to become really dangerous for the population of the Earth, many fundamentally different deadly pathogens must arise simultaneously in nature, which has not happened on our planet so far.

Biological weaponsThe spread of a certain virus or bacterium can occur in the form of an epidemic transmitted from person to person, or in the form of contamination of the environment (air, water, food, soil).

The 1918 Spanish flu epidemic affected the whole world, except for a few remote islands. At the same time, the hypothesis of an epidemic that kills all people faces two problems:

• if people die quickly, then there is no one to spread the virus further
• in all epidemics, there are usually people who have innate immunity to the disease.

Biotechnologies are able to solve both problems. In fact, most of the equipment needed to create dangerous biological weapons is already ready. For example, at the end of 2007, a set of basic "cubes" for genetic engineering was proposed, distributed according to the principles of free software.

In addition, biological weapons are already considered one of the cheapest – the cost of death in it is a few cents, and the creation of a biological superbomb is thousands of times cheaper than the creation of nuclear weapons of comparable destructive power. On the other hand, large protected laboratories and landfills are needed for the production of modern reagents like anthrax for military purposes.

The situation will change for the worse when inexpensive technologies for the production of arbitrary living organisms with predetermined functions will spread. In parallel, there will be a dissemination of knowledge about how to use these technologies to harm.

The constant cheapening and simplification of machines for DNA sequencing and synthesis (that is, reading and creating the genetic code), makes possible the emergence of biohackers. There is no reason to think that the pace of development of biotechnologies will slow down – the industry is full of new ideas and opportunities, and medicine creates constant demand. More than 100,000 viruses have already been written for computers, the scale of creativity of biohackers can be no less. It can be expressed in the development of several scenarios:

• a certain animal, which is a carrier of a dangerous bacterium, is spreading all over the world. This is how malaria spreads in nature on mosquitoes and plague on rats.
• the appearance of an omnivorous agent that destroys the entire biosphere, affecting any living cells. Or at least only plants or animals of some critical kind.
• binary bacteriological weapon. For example, tuberculosis and AIDS are chronic diseases, but with simultaneous infection, a person burns up in a short time. One of the scary scenarios is AIDS, which is spread by airborne droplets.
• two-stage biological weapons. At the first stage, the toxin-producing bacterium spreads imperceptibly around the world. At the second, on a signal or timer, it begins to produce the toxin immediately everywhere on Earth. Some microorganisms behave this way when attacking a multicellular organism.
• an agent that changes behavior. Rabies (aggressiveness, bites) and toxoplasma (loss of a sense of fear) encourage infected animals to behave that contributes to the infection of other animals. Theoretically, one can imagine an agent that would cause people to enjoy and desire to infect others with it.
• an autocatalytic molecule capable of spreading indefinitely in nature. Mad cow disease is caused by autocatalysis of a special protein called a prion. However, mad cow disease spreads only through meat.
• the spread of a living being producing a dangerous toxin throughout the biosphere. It can be genetically modified yeast or mold that produces dioxin or botulism toxin.
• "artificial life", that is, living organisms built using a different DNA code or a set of amino acids. They can be invincible to the immune systems of modern living organisms and "eat the biosphere".

Multiple biological impactAlthough the spread of one epidemic can most likely be stopped, but an epidemic caused by several dozen types of heterogeneous viruses and bacteria that have gone out of control simultaneously in many places around the globe cannot be stopped even technically, because it is impossible to inject several dozen different vaccines and antibiotics into a person at the same time - he will die.

If a virus with a 50 percent lethality would be just a very big disaster, then 30 heterogeneous viruses and bacteria with a 50 percent lethality would mean guaranteed extermination of everyone who did not hide in bunkers.

A multiple strike could be both a powerful means of biological warfare and a doomsday weapon. But it can also happen by itself if many acts of bioagent distribution occur simultaneously, for example, during an active "competition" of biohackers.

Biological means of deliveryBiological weapons should not only be lethal, but also contagious and easily spread.

Genetic technologies provide huge opportunities not only for the creation of lethal weapons, but also for ways to deliver them. For example, a modified malaria mosquito that can live in any environment and spread across the planet with great speed. Or locusts, after genetic tuning, eating all living things and spraying anthrax spores.

A bacteriological war can be experienced in a bunker. But in fiction, the theme of mutant attacks on the last human bunker is common. Ordinary radiation is not capable of generating aggressive mutants. However, there is a rabies virus that affects the behavior of animals, forcing them to spread it more actively (by bites). It is not difficult to imagine an advanced product of genetic engineering that turns any animal into a creature that is aggressive towards humans. The very fantasticism of such a project can be an incentive to its implementation – the idea of making a zombie virus is quite an attractive challenge for a biohacker.

Home BioconstructorThe probability that biotechnologies will lead to the extinction of mankind is very high.

Since the mass distribution of very cheap devices is inevitable, which make it very easy to create many different biological agents. That is, bioprinters are as widespread as personal computers are now.

The device will consist of an ordinary computer, a pirated program with a library of source elements, and the biological part of the bioprinter itself, which will be a genetically modified living being, that is, capable of self-reproduction. Plus a set of relatively affordable equipment, such as vessels for chemical reagents and a communication system of the biological part with a computer. The distribution channel of this kit can be criminal communities that produce drugs. Since computers are already available, and the program and the living part of the bioprinter itself are capable of unlimited copying, the price of this device assembled will be infinitely small.

Theoretically, this could happen around 2020 (full recognition of human DNA by 2015 will cost about $1,000). And this does not mean that any terrorists are not already developing a brood of lethal viruses.

Based on the book by Alexey Turchin "The Structure of a global catastrophe".

EXPERT'S COMMENT:
Biological weapons are an inconvenient tool for terrorists
Natalia Kalinina, MD, Professor, Chief Researcher at the Center for International Security of the IMEMO RAS:The probability of using biological weapons (BW) is close to zero.

Now there is no point in using BO, as there is, in fact, no biological weapon itself. Back in 1972, the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological Weapons was signed – States assumed obligations not to develop, not to produce, not to accumulate and, accordingly, not to use biological weapons. Today, 165 countries are members of this Convention.

In the period before and after World War II, many developed countries had programs for the development of biological weapons and their production technology. The main types of BO are anthrax, plague, cholera, West Nile fever, Lasso fever, etc. But no country has used it even during the war, because the biopathogen does not distinguish between "its own and others" and the consequences of its use are poorly predictable.

The strains that some States now have cannot be called biological weapons. These are living substances that are stored as museum cultures and used for the development of serums, vaccines, etc. Theoretically, it is possible that an accident will occur in some laboratory. But in any case, this incident will be of a local nature. For example, in 1979, the so-called "Sverdlovsk tragedy" occurred in the USSR, when an anthrax leak occurred in one of the laboratories, resulting in the death of several dozen people. After that, the government adopted a number of toughening documents to restrict work with laboratory pathogenic strains. The story has received wide international publicity. They tried to accuse us of violating the Convention, according to which all research related to the development of BO should have stopped by that time. But numerous examinations have not proved that the leak occurred as a result of some active work. Therefore, the incident had no international consequences.

In general, from time to time, both in our country and in other countries, it happens that someone from the laboratory staff is bitten by a sick animal, someone is pricked with an infected needle, etc. As a result, infection of personnel may occur. And no state can guarantee one hundred percent protection from such an emergency.

At the same time, biological weapons are a very inconvenient tool for terrorism. A biological terrorist attack, especially on a global scale, is unlikely. Although there were attempts. For example, the Aum Shinrikyo sect tried to commit such an act – even before the gas attack in the Tokyo subway. The cultists infected fleas with the plague and dispersed them in the urban environment. But they did not achieve results. There have been many terrorist organizations in the world for a long time, including quite wealthy ones. Nevertheless, no one has yet succeeded in creating and effectively using biological weapons.

But it is quite realistic that a new disease of natural or artificial nature will cause global consequences. Any microbe, whatever it is, mutates, forming new strains with unknown properties. And when this mutant gets into an environment where they do not know how to handle it, naturally, a new disease arises, which (at least at the first stage) will not respond well to treatment or will not be cured at all – until an effective remedy is found. Let's remember, in 2003 there was avian flu, later – swine flu. And two years ago, almost the whole of Europe was covered by an intestinal infection. The usual E. coli mutated and ceased to respond to traditional treatment. The World Health Organization then declared the fourth degree of threat – a threat of global spread. New diseases periodically appeared earlier, they will appear in the future.

Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru12.12.2012