Pension certificate – together with a death certificate
The people are ready to die before retirement
Rustem Falyakhov, "Newspaper.Ru»
The retirement age may be raised. Presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich believes that the people are ripe for this. Although, if you raise the age limit for going on a "well-deserved rest", most men will definitely not live to see this joyful event, experts warn.
The time has come to change the social policy of the state, it's time to save money, Russian Presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich said at the XI International Conference on Economic and Social Development at the Higher School of Economics on Thursday. The changes will affect healthcare and education.
In addition, Dvorkovich suggests discussing the problem of raising the retirement age in society. "It seems to me that the time has come, and we should not deceive ourselves that people are not ready. They're ready. But we need to be careful about this issue: we need specific plans that should be discussed in society. We can't postpone any more," Dvorkovich said.
In his opinion, the reduction of social spending will not lead to a drop in the standard of living of the population, since the authorities intend to modernize the economy. And this, Dvorkovich hopes, will lead to an increase in the pace of economic growth, which in turn will raise the standard of living of Russians. So there is no contradiction between modernization plans and increased social obligations, Dmitry Medvedev's assistant sums up.
Dvorkovich's statement sharply dissonates with the government's plans for massive financial support for pensioners. All last year, officials proudly declared that the Russian budget is almost the most socially oriented in the world. Despite the crisis and the growing budget deficit, pension indexation will continue this year. The average size of a labor pension in Russia in 2020 will be about 8 thousand rubles, social — about 5 thousand rubles, promised Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. As a result, federal budget expenditures on the implementation of pension reform will amount to more than 1.7 trillion rubles this year. This is a record figure in recent years.
But due to the increase in payments to pensioners, the deficit of the Pension Fund of Russia, according to the Ministry of Finance, will amount to more than a trillion rubles in 2010, 511 billion rubles in 2011, 300 billion rubles in 2012. It is not surprising that the authorities start a discussion about raising the retirement age whenever the pension system begins to experience a shortage of funds and levers are needed with which it can be returned to a state of equilibrium.
Achieving balance will not be easy. Currently, about 39 million pensioners account for 65 million people of the employed population, of which about 30 million are old-age. Thus, one pensioner in Russia is fed by 1.7 employees.
Moreover, such a burden on workers will only increase. Even rich Western countries cannot allow their citizens to retire at 55-60 years old, as it is established in Russia. It seems that it is really impossible to do without raising the pension bar, experts admit. At the same time, the problem of the budget deficit of the Pension Fund of Russia is being solved.
At the request of "Gazeta.En" experts have calculated what the savings will be if the retirement age is raised to the standards of some European countries – 65 years for men and women. In Russia in 2009, there were about 5.8 million people aged 60-64.
"If the retirement age is raised, relatively speaking, from next year, depriving these people of pensions, then the "gain" of the Pension Fund with an average pension level of 7000 rubles will amount to 40.6 billion rubles," says Alexey Kalinin, head of the state consulting practice of Business Solutions LLC. If we also take into account about 5 million women aged 55-59 years, the amount of savings will double.
"It is clear that the budget savings will be significant, since taking into account the average life expectancy in Russia, few people will live to the new retirement age," agrees Elena Matrosova, head of the BDO Center for Macroeconomic Research.
For the male part of the Russian population, the 65-year retirement age is not very real. "The average life expectancy for men in 2008 (the forecast for 2009 is not ready yet) was 61.8 years, for women – 74.2 years, and this gender difference of 12-13 years remains with us for many, many years," says a leading expert of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMACP) Igor Polyakov.
Forecasts for life expectancy are derived by Rosstat, but they are quite reliable, the expert says. At least the Russian data is almost the same as what the UN gives for Russia.
It turns out that the authorities will not be able to raise the retirement age for men, as they say, for technical reasons. Most men simply won't make it to a "well-deserved rest." And it will be difficult to raise the bar for women for ethical reasons. Although the woman's age is not so short, as it turns out. "It is so accepted that women give birth, raise grandchildren, and men work. Everyone has their own share. It's ingrained in the mind, and it's unrealistic to change it," Polyakov says ironically. Moreover, women always have an iron argument ready regarding the low life expectancy of men: "You need to drink less!"
The new pension plan, if it is introduced, will not be introduced until 2012. "Only after the parliamentary and presidential elections can the authorities begin to think more actively in this direction," says Matrosova.
"You should not deceive yourself that people are ready,– Kalinin believes. "Today's pensioners are people born in the USSR: they are not ready to lose another milestone of social protection."
The expert suggests recalling the so-called "monetization of benefits". It was the "young" pensioners who were outraged at that time, and this social protest forced the authorities to retreat. It is no coincidence that the State Duma immediately reacted to Dvorkovich's proposal. There are regular parliamentary elections in 2011, and deputies do not want to limit the most conscientious part of the electorate – pensioners. It is possible to talk about the possibility of raising the retirement age no earlier than 2020, and now it is too early, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Labor and Social Policy United Russia Andrey Isaev said on the air of the Echo of Moscow radio station.
"The assumption that the retirement age will be raised in 2020 may be due to the fact that at this time the first basic payments to participants of the pension reform of 2002 in the framework of mandatory pension insurance are coming," says the Director General of the information resource Pensiamarket.ru Radik Dautov.
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru09.04.2010