Thomson Reuters has published a forecast of the 2015 Nobel Prize laureates
Muscovite goes to the "Nobel"
Department of Science "Newspapers.Ru" tells about other candidates for the prestigious award, as well as why it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict the names of the winners.
In the scientific disciplines of the Nobel Prize, the list of the most likely candidates for its receipt is traditionally compiled based on the number of citations of scientists' publications. Such lists are published annually by Thomson Reuters. This year, Thomson Reuters made a forecast for four disciplines – chemistry, physics, economics and medicine, which included 18 people, including a former Russian, immunologist Alexander Rudensky.
MedicineJeffrey Gordon was named the first candidate for the award in medicine, who was able to demonstrate that there is a certain relationship between a person and the microflora of his human intestine, and the microflora directly affects the general state of health, the absorption of nutrients and the likelihood of problems with excess weight.
Other likely winners include Katsuoshi Mori and Peter Walter. These scientists independently explained the mechanism of detection and correction of non–folded proteins in the endoplasmic network - this process is a kind of system for "quality control" of cells, and the work of researchers has shed light on the occurrence of many diseases and possible ways of their treatment.
In addition, among the laureates may be Ethan Shevach, Shimon Sakaguchi and Alexander Rudensky, who made "fundamental discoveries about the nature and purpose of regulatory T-cells (cells of the human immune system. - "Newspaper.Ru") and the Foxp3 transcription factor". Their achievement makes it possible to understand the essence of the mechanisms that cause allergies, autoimmune diseases, inflammatory and other processes.
Alexander Rudensky is currently the director of the Ludwig Cancer Immunotherapy Center, professor at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Rockefeller University and Cornell University, professor at the Gerstner-Sloan-Kettering Graduate School and the Weill Graduate School of Cornell University School of Medicine. Professor Rudensky's scientific career began at Moscow State University, where he studied biochemistry and worked in the laboratory of immunochemistry. Rudensky tells: "In 1979, I started working in Vitaly Yurin's laboratory at the Gabrichevsky Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology in Moscow, one of the best molecular immunology laboratories in the country. After some time, I became somewhat bored with biochemistry, and I gladly accepted Vitaly's offer to study the biological functions of white blood cells – T cells, which are responsible for protecting the body from pathogens.
After receiving my doctorate, I worked in Vitali's laboratory for several more years.
In 1989, shortly before the fall of the Berlin Wall, I got a chance to go to West Berlin and present the results of my work at the International Congress of Immunologists.
I was happy to be among an international group of outstanding scientists, to hear about their latest achievements. After that, I started looking for an opportunity to take part in work outside the Soviet Union."
Alexander Rudensky wrote to Charles Janaway, an outstanding American immunologist, and he invited Rudensky to work in his laboratory at the Yale School of Medicine. "It was difficult to get permission to leave the country. I remember calling Charles from our home phone, from the kitchen in the center of Moscow. The English I was speaking at the time was difficult to understand, but Charles understood everything and helped me settle the formalities," Rudensky recalls. Soon the Russian scientist with his wife and four children left for the USA, where he still works.
ChemistryThe most likely candidate for the Nobel Prize in Chemistry Thomson Reuters calls Caroline Bertozzi, professor of chemistry and chemical and systems biology at Stanford University.
Professor Bertozzi studies bioorthogonal reactions – chemical reactions that can take place inside living systems without interfering with natural biochemical processes. Thanks to them, it is possible to observe the course of biochemical processes in cells, while keeping them alive and not violating their integrity.
In addition to Caroline Bertozzi, Emmanuel Charpentier and Jennifer Doudna can receive the Nobel Prize in Chemistry (for developing a method called CRISPR/cas-9, which allows you to "edit" the genome of a living organism. This method allows you to find and replace damaged parts of the genome, which in the future may help in the treatment of genetic diseases), as well as John Goodenough and Stanley Whittingham, who proposed a scientific justification for the development of lithium-ion batteries, thanks to which mobile phones, tablet computers and other portable electronic gadgets are charged, as well as medical devices. implantable devices, such as pacemakers.
[Read about the likely candidates for prizes in physics and economics in the original article – VM.]
Forecast is not a guarantee of a premiumSince 2002, the names of 35 Nobel Prize winners have been correctly listed in the Thomson Reuters lists.
After such a series of successes, getting a scientist on such a list has become for many almost a guarantee that sooner or later he will receive a prize. However, since 2013 (when Thomson Reuters guessed only Peter Higgs and Francois Engler), the situation has changed: all the other successfully predicted laureates were named by the company in the lists for previous years. Previously, such misfires occurred only in 1993 and 1996, and these ratings have been compiled since 1989.
Last year, the company did not guess a single candidate at all (however, the names of two scientists – Suji Nakamura and Jean Tirol – were named in 2002 and 2007).
"Misfires" happen because citation is still not a fundamental factor influencing the decision of the Nobel Committee. As he stated last year to "The newspaper.En" Richard Roberts, who received a medical Nobel in 1993 "for the discovery of the discontinuous structure of the gene", "no one knows what principles the members of the Nobel Committee are guided by when determining the winner. No one knows what they are paying attention to, how the discussion is going. Some details are revealed after 50 years, but it's still not enough to make successful predictions." You can see how many Thomson Reuters forecasts have come true here – the names of those who still received the Nobel Prize are marked with an asterisk.
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25.09.2015