We're all going to die, but not from the coronavirus
Virologists have estimated the likelihood of a Chinese pneumonia pandemic
Alexander Slabiev, Daily Storm
Russian virologists told the Daily Storm about the serious threat of a pneumonia pandemic caused by a virus from Wuhan, China.
According to a number of experts, the information noise around the coronavirus 2019-nCoV is created artificially, the threat is not so serious, since the virus does not spread so quickly. They drew attention to the fact that the World Health Organization (WHO) she has already stated that there is no need to introduce a state of emergency. Russians can rest easy: our country has one of the best biological protection systems.
Professor, Doctor of Biological Sciences Mikhail Shchelkanov explained why the coronavirus is no more dangerous than the flu: "The mortality rate from the Chinese coronavirus is two to three percent. Frankly speaking, the mortality rate is not very high. If we compare it with its closest relative, the acute respiratory syndrome virus, then the mortality rate in China is close to 10%, if we take it around the world, then to 11%. And the ability of the Chinese coronavirus to be transmitted from person to person is lower than that of influenza type A. A relatively large number of cases [several thousand] is due to the fact that the disease broke out in Wuhan, where about 11 million people live."
According to Shchelkanov, Chinese virologists have worked perfectly, but the authorities are half a step behind: the closure of transport arteries should have been carried out two or three weeks ago. In fact, quarantine in Wuhan was introduced only on January 23. This is the reason for the wave of morbidity.
"I think in two or three weeks we will realize that the situation has stabilized. I don't see any reason for the broad masses of the population to follow this event like the World Cup. All these unnecessary information pumps are needed only to test the resilience of society to fake news. You should be calmer. Russian citizens can not panic, because we have the best biological safety system," the scientist concluded.
Any information from China about the virus should be questioned, Shchelkanov noted and recalled that the Chinese authorities initially stated that the virus was not transmitted from person to person. Later it turned out that the virus can be transmitted by airborne droplets.
"A person can fight this coronavirus in about the same way as with the flu," Timur Pesterev, an epidemiologist at the Center for Molecular Diagnostics of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, told the Daily Storm. "A person with an uncomplicated immune system may well be able to cope with this disease."
"If we recall SARS or Middle East respiratory syndrome [Middle East respiratory syndrome, MERS], then these were also coronaviruses. The only difference between the Chinese coronavirus and the previous ones is that it is well transmitted from person to person. But the flu is also well transmitted from person to person, and there are some complications with it. And a lot more people die from the flu every year," the specialist explained.
He drew attention to the fact that even now there are patients with Middle East respiratory syndrome in the world, just nobody talks about it.
"In any cases similar to an epidemic, WHO representatives must be on the spot. At the same time, the WHO last week admitted that the situation is not so terrible. In fact, it's not as bad as journalists draw. There is nothing extraordinary. Of course, we will all die, but not from this coronavirus," the doctor concluded.
However, from the point of view of statistics, it is still not worth underestimating the threat from a new virus. Dmitry Lvov, Director of the State Research Institute of Virology of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, pointed out that the mortality rate of the coronavirus reaches 2.7%, and 5-10% of the entire population of the planet suffer from influenza annually, while much less die as a percentage. According to WHO estimates, this is because of all cases of influenza (about a billion), mostly severe cases end in death – 290-650 thousand people die from complications, that is, 0.03% – 0.065%.
If we imagine a situation in which all the inhabitants of the Earth will become infected with a new coronavirus, then about 200 million people may die, this is more than the population of Russia. The question is whether the virus can spread.
"That's why now they only talk about this coronavirus," said Lviv. – If the Director General of the World Health Organization went to China, then there is cause for concern. WHO gives this assessment: this is a "national emergency".
Epidemiologist, State Duma deputy Gennady Onishchenko tried to calm the Russians. According to him, there are about 30 medicines in Russia that help against the Chinese coronavirus: "To reassure our public: already about 30 medicines that are available today are being treated, working against this virus. 12 of them are those with which we treat HIV infection." Indinavir, saquinavir and other drugs help with Chinese pneumonia.
It has already been scientifically established that the coronavirus from Wuhan is a combination of two other coronaviruses. The source of one of them were bats, and the second – snakes (ribbon krait and cobra). The mutation of the virus could have occurred as a result of snakes eating bats. Coronaviruses are spherical microbes containing a single–stranded RNA molecule. They got their name because of the shell with rare spikes or villi that resemble a crown during an eclipse of the sun. For the first time, human coronavirus was isolated in 1965, today 39 coronaviruses are known.
In China, on the afternoon of January 27, it was reported that 57 people were cured of coronavirus 2019-nCoV, the total number of cases increased to 2,835, 81 people died.
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