A treadmill will help predict a near death
The level of physical fitness turned out to be the main indicator
risk of death in the next 10 years
Cardiologists from Johns Hopkins University (USA) have derived a universal formula that allows you to estimate the risk of death over the next decade, based on indicators such as gender, age and the results shown by a person on a treadmill simulator. The work of Ahmed et al. Maximal Exercise Testing Variables and 10-Year Survival: Fitness Risk Score Derivation From the FIT Project is published in the journal Mayo Clinic Proceedings.
The researchers analyzed data on more than 58 thousand people aged 18 to 96 years who underwent standard cardiac stress tests on a treadmill. Such tests allow doctors to assess how the heart and lungs cope with increasing physical activity with a gradual increase in speed. Testing usually ends when the patient talks about reaching the limit of his abilities, or he has pain behind the sternum, dizziness or a violation of the heart rhythm.
Scientists have found that among people of the same sex and age, it is the level of physical fitness that is the main indicator of the risk of death in the next 10 years. The researchers assessed the level of physical fitness based on two indicators: peak heart rate values during a stress test on a treadmill and the ability to carry a load, measured in metabolic equivalents (METs). One MET is the amount of energy that a particular organism expends at rest, a slow walk on average corresponds to two MET, and running – eight MET. The more MET a person needs to perform a load, the worse his ability to carry it.
As a result, the researchers derived a formula they called the FIT Treadmill Score, which takes into account the level of physical fitness, as well as the gender and age of a person. The resulting results are ranked in the range from minus 200 to 200. At the same time, results above 0 indicate a low, and below zero – a high risk of death in the next decade.
So, in patients who scored over 100 points, that is, having very good physical fitness, this risk is 2%, and from 0 to 100 (the level of physical fitness is a little worse) – 3%. People who scored from 0 to minus 100 points (poor level of physical fitness) have an 11 percent risk of death, and even less – 38 percent. This means that out of 100 people of the same sex and age with results exceeding 100 points, two will die in the next decade, with results from 0 to 100 – three, with results from 0 to minus 100 – 11 people, and with results below minus 100 – 38 people.
Graph from an article in Mayo Clinic Proceedings – VM.
"The FIT Treadmill Score formula is very easy to calculate, and the cost of such a test does not exceed the cost of the simulator itself," lead author Michael Blaha noted in a Johns Hopkins Medicine "Treadmill Performance Predicts Mortality" press release. "We hope that our formula will enter clinical practice and will be widely used by cardiologists."
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru05.03.2015