Rapid growth and price appreciation are expected in the Russian pharmaceutical market
According to the forecasts of the marketing agency DSM Group, next year the Russian drug market is waiting for unprecedented growth: the market will increase by 27% and its capacity will exceed 450 billion rubles. However, in dollar terms, the growth will be much more modest – about 5% – and the total volume of the drug market will reach $ 15 billion. This year, the capacity of the drug market will be about $ 14.5 billion (30% by 2007), or 360 billion rubles (26% by 2007).
The main factor in the positive dynamics of the market will be a rise in the price of medicines by 23%, which is significantly higher than the expected jump in prices this year (10%). Three quarters of medicines on our market are imported, respectively, the devaluation of the ruble relative to the currency basket is the main reason for the increase in the cost of medicines. So in 1999, the experts of the DSM Group recorded almost a doubling of the ruble capacity of the drug market, despite its fall in dollars by almost a third.
The pharmaceutical market, like the food market, is more protected from the crisis. The population will start saving on medicines last of all, but a decrease in consumer activity will certainly affect the market situation. The transition to more expensive and effective medicines will practically stop, although over the past two years this has been the main factor in increasing the market capacity.
This forecast was made on the basis of two key assumptions for 2009: the real GDP growth of the country will be about 3.5%, and the average annual exchange rate will be at the level of 30 rubles per 1 dollar. The international company IMS Health predicts an increase in the global drug market in 2009 by 4.5-5.5%, to an indicator of $ 820 billion. Thus, the expected growth of the Russian market next year to $ 15 billion (5% by the current year) will generally correspond to the global trend.
Pharmaceutical BulletinPortal "Eternal youth" http://www.vechnayamolodost.ru