A sensation? Don't believe it!
Why you can't believe scientific and medical sensations
Copper news based on Vox materials: This is why you shouldn’t believe that exciting new medical studyIn 2003, the American Journal of Medicine presented the results of an analysis of 101 studies published in leading scientific journals for the period from 1979 to 1983.
Each of these works claimed promising treatment or medical technology. Only five of these hundreds of new products have entered the market. Only one (angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, or ACE inhibitors) it was still actively used at the time of publication of the study 20 years later.
But it is impossible to understand this by reading the press. Many published studies contain more enthusiasm, hopes and promises than actual breakthroughs.
"There is a huge, huge difference between how the media talk about news and how scientists talk about it," says Naomi Oreskes, a professor of the history of science at Harvard. – For you, only something new becomes news - and this creates bias in the media, the pursuit of only the latest results (better than in three comics published under the general heading "Funny pictures about the adventures of scientific news", you can't say about it – VM :). My opinion is that absolutely new data is most likely to be erroneous."
In fact, all studies are biased and imperfect in their own way, despite any efforts to neutralize these effects. Bias is contained in the very formulation of the question. The truth is found somewhere between all the studies on the same topic. This means that real scientific discoveries are not the result of miraculous single studies or insights. No, they happen as a result of a long tedious process of trials, repetitions, reproductions, discussions with colleagues. The purpose of this process is to make sure that the data obtained is correct, accurate and not random.
As long as science works in this way that suits it, we, journalists, and our audience cling to "promising discoveries". Isn't it amazing to hear about a completely new idea that is possible– possible! – it will revolutionize medicine and stop the suffering of people. We don't want to wait for scientific consensus, we report scientific results a little prematurely and cause people false hopes. The only way to overcome this trend is to remember that the vast majority of medical research is wrong.
For example, in recent years there have been more than 200 erroneous results about the "victory over cancer" (according to Forbes sources). Of the 50,000 new journal articles published annually in America, only 3,000 (according to experts) contain studies so well conducted that their results can be presented to the general public. This is 6% of publications.
Separate studies on the same issue often contradict each other rather than agree. This is very clearly seen in the diagram below, reflecting research on foods that cause or prevent cancer. The truth is somewhere in between, but each of these studies gets into the press. Therefore, one week red wine will add a few years of life, but the next it will kill you.
For a generalizing study of the relationship of food with cancer, underlying this diagram, 50 random ingredients were selected from the recipes of The Boston Culinary School Cookbook (The Boston Cooking-School Cook Book). For most of them, there are a number of studies, each of which is marked with a red dot and placed on the scale to the left or right of the vertical line. Studies marked on the left have shown that food protects against the development of cancer. Studies on the right – that food increases the risk of cancer.
Scientists cannot always reproduce the results of other scientists, and often they do not even try. About 85% of medical research funding worldwide ($200 billion) annually goes to poorly planned or unnecessary work.
All this means that in the early stages, medical research will mostly give incorrect results (or correct ones – most likely by accident). Only a tiny part of this scientific work will lead to something useful for people.
We live in a time of unprecedented scientific reach. Thanks to the Internet, this whole world of knowledge is available to us at any moment. But an abundance of information is bad information, and doubts have never been so necessary as they are now.
Journalists who "feed" on the press releases of journals and institutes find it difficult to resist the sweet voices of hot discoveries. We want to find a new topic for the article, and scientists and institutes want to draw attention to their work. Patients, of course, want the best medicines, the best procedures and hope for healing. But the truth is behind scientists calling for skipping the latest research and turning to areas of medical knowledge where a sufficient number of results have already accumulated. It is there that we can find information about how to become healthier.
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru25.03.2015