Export of non-traditional orientation

The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation will deal with non-traditional exports

Delovoy Peterburg, 03.04.2012

The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia sets super-tasks before changing the Cabinet of Ministers. In particular, the head of the MAYOR, Elvira Nabiullina, whose place in the new cabinet is not booked, offered to get off the raw needle and engage in "non-traditional exports."

"We are talking about increasing the so-called non-traditional (non-primary. – Ed.) exports at times. According to our estimates, non–primary exports should grow 2.5 times by 2020 and 7.5 times by 2030," RIA Novosti quoted the head of the ministry as saying at the annual conference on economic and social development.

According to the calculations of the MAYOR, "the growth of income from the traditional export of hydrocarbons will be limited in the near future." The excitement against the background of $124 per barrel of Brent oil looks intriguing, but it is also clear that the general market situation does not play in favor of economies focused only on the export of resources.

"It would be interesting to know what Elvira Nabiullina means by "non-traditional exports". Because, for example, in relation to high–tech developments - Skolkovo, etc., I am a big skeptic. An innovative breakthrough is possible only in those economies where there is an industry demand for these innovations. You can, of course, sell all the developments of Ford and Mitsubishi. But all this is just a polite way of brain drain. The guys are already working on these "experimental productions", our Nobel laureates are in the Netherlands. Now the most developing industries are genomics, DNA decoding, alternative energy, various gadgets, but none of this is being done here. There is a famous photo: after the meeting, where Medvedev said that we need energy-saving light bulbs with such a spiral, and here in the photo such a light bulb is fastened to the pipe with a chain. This is the essence of our innovative exports," explains the situation dp.ru Alexey Vyazovsky, an analyst at Kalita-Finance.

According to Elvira Nabiullina, Russia should increase exports of non–primary goods at times - "only in this case we will be able to maintain a non-negative current account balance, which now reaches about $ 100 billion, but under the current conditions... it may become negative already in 2014."

"During the reign of Putin, Medvedev will also be included in this list, Russia's dependence on raw materials has only increased. Two-thirds of budget revenues are generated from oil, gas, metals, wood, grain and mineral fertilizers. That's the essence of our exports. Everything. Something can still be done in agriculture. All these innovations are needed there. Of course, this is also a raw material export, but it is not a pipe or a tanker," says Alexey Vyazovsky.

As for limiting the growth of revenues from the export of hydrocarbons, experts here are of the opinion that the Russian authorities have again seriously taken care of creating a "safety cushion". The idea of withdrawal of excess profits of oil and gas companies has been developed. Moreover, in Russia it is planned to increase the tax burden on gas and oil workers. Similarly, the idea of an additional increase (plus a 15% jump from July 1, 2012) has not been developed. – Ed.) tariffs of natural monopolies.

Raw materials companies will be charged more taxes (which is not surprising in principle) and at the same time they will allegedly not be allowed to take more money from consumers themselves (which is unlikely). However, this is unlikely to allow Russia to get away from oil dependence, to get off the proverbial needle. Russia will not become Canada or Australia. Countries whose livelihoods are also closely linked to oil export prices have an important advantage – a more diversified economy. "We are being held in raw material slavery and will continue to be held, it seems to me," Alexey Vyazovsky sums up.

The volume of exports from Russia, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, increased by 30.2% in 2011 compared to 2010 – from $400.4 billion to $521 billion. At the same time , the bulk of exports were: crude oil ($180.8 billion, petroleum products – $95 billion, natural gas – $64.6 billion).

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03.04.2012