Nanoindustry in 2025: what the experts predicted
The first stage of the forecast of the development of nanotechnology in Russia has been completed
Published on the Nanometer website
In 2007-2008, a large–scale research project was carried out - a long-term forecast of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025. The purpose of the project was to assess the current state of science and technology, as well as promising directions for their development. The last time this kind of work was carried out in the USSR more than 20 years ago. An important element of the project was a foresight study based on the Delphi method - a multi–level questionnaire survey of experts with feedback. The survey and analysis of questionnaires were conducted by employees of the Foresight Center of the Higher School of Economics. The results of the study are presented by the director of the Foresight Center Alexander Sokolov and colleagues in the new issue of the journal "Russian Nanotechnology".
A survey of experts from the nanosystems and materials industry, as one of the priority areas of Russian science, showed the following. Only 5% of developments in this industry correspond to the world level. The technologies for creating membranes and catalytic systems are the most relevant for our country – their average importance index is 87. (The importance index is a generalizing indicator reflecting the aggregate expert opinion on the significance of individual developments, its maximum value is assumed to be 100). Nano- and microsystem technology were at the bottom of the list of current technologies. When can we expect fundamental technical solutions from nanoscience? The overwhelming majority (99%) of experts believe that these will appear before 2020, and the developments in the field of membranes and catalytic systems are the earliest, they will be implemented before 2015. Technologies for processing associated petroleum gases into aromatic compounds are competitive in domestic marketsmining on nanoporous catalysts and technologies for the production of ceramic nanofibers and functional nanofibers. In solving social problems, experts gave preference to:
- nanocontainer technologies of vector drug delivery;
- technologies for creating biocompatible materials based on micro- and nanostructures that mimic the tissues of living organisms;
- technologies for creating magnetic nanocarriers with an adjustable Curie point for medical purposes.
As for strengthening our positions in world markets, the domestic nanoindustry is not a locomotive here, unlike aviation and space. However, of the 20 topics that received the highest ratings according to the criterion of "integration into global value chains", 9 relate to the nanosystems and materials industry. Among them:
- technologies of catalytic synthesis of carbon nanomaterials from available hydrocarbon raw materials;
- nanocontainers based on mesoporous silicon and aluminum oxides with adjustable pore size;
- long-dimensional materials with high-temperature superconductivity;
- polymer materials for memory devices, switches, information recording, detectors, displays, molecular devices and micromachines, etc.
A.V. Sokolov, S. A. Shashnov, O. I. Karasev, V. A. Rud "Long-term forecast of the development of the Russian nanoindustry using the Delphi method". Journal "Russian Nanotechnologies", No. 5-6, 2009. p. 17
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru21.07.2009