Nanotechnology: less noise!
Nano as a premonition
Ivan Sterligov, Higher School of Economics, especially for STRF.ruIn the whole history of nanotechnology, there is one aspect that is given little attention.
It's about what kind of general cultural role they are assigned, who is doing this and why. "I don't think I will impress anyone with this thought: it is quite obvious that in the coming years the development of nanotechnology can change the face of humanity, change our lives," Dmitry Medvedev said at the Second Nanoforum. Let's try to answer the question - how did such an idea arise?
I'll start with the platitudes. The development of science and technology has long been considered the locomotive of civilization. Now, for some reason, it is considered that the peak of the bright faith in progress fell on the XIX century, and then everything was overshadowed by world wars, the atomic threat, Chernobyl and a crisis attitude arose.
This is the view of intellectuals. From the point of view of the layman, transport, communications, medicine and other benefits have made life better, more interesting and more fun. Yes, according to some index, the natives live the happiest on the atoll. But it is unlikely that we will agree to join their team. Everyone is happy with the technology. And everyone understands that we owe their appearance to the field of research and development. Of course, few people imagine in detail the path from Perelman to foam rubber, rather, there are some general ideas about the process. First, scientists discovered some kind of radiation, then the military connected, and now the microwave oven is ready.
Moreover, technologies in the XX-XXI centuries improved so quickly that each generation had several scientific and technological revolutions. Recently I listened to a lecture by Vladimir Dolgov, the head of Russian Google. He said that we live in the era of the fifth such revolution. Everyone has already got used to the scale of changes brought by, say, the telephone or aviation. Now the Internet is changing our whole life before our eyes.
When such things are happening in the world with great speed, the desire to predict the course of history and influence it reaches its apogee. However, the previous development of civilization has changed itself. Governments, societies and science have become different. Mass culture, new needs and new forms of spirituality have conquered the world. Technological progress has spawned an entire industry to study it. Science has become diverse, and officials have become increasingly demanding practical results from it. All these changes required a new type of scientific and futurological concept, and nanotechnology became such a concept, which should eclipse IT as an engine of progress.
The key word here is "should". Nanotechnology is still eternally young, it is always "capable of changing in the coming years." A future that is more than 20 years old. The main prophet of nanotech was Eric Drexler, who published the book Engines of Creation back in 1986: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (Russian translation – for example, here). Basically, it was about nanorobots assemblers (including the famous gray slime), which assemble their own kind from molecules - with absolutely amazing consequences. Drexler also drew attention to Richard Feynman's now popular work There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom, previously relatively little known. So nanotechnology received a Nobel laureate, the "father" who predicted them back in 1959, and was inscribed in their history much later. It is also important that Drexler's prophecies are part of the broad context of American futurology and science fiction. The preface to "Creation Machines" was written by Marvin Minsky, a friend of Isaac Asimov and a consultant to the 2001 Space Odyssey.
Another Nobel winner, Richard Smalley, in 2001, through Scientific American explained to the nation the impossibility (so far) of creating such robots, but by that time their beauty had captured the minds of many. Moreover, everyone was aware of the amazing possibilities of scanning probe microscopy, discovered in the 1980s. Nanorobots and nanotechnologies are tightly included in the arsenal of consulting analysts, futurologists, singularity researchers and techno-new age groups, as well as a number of Russian specialists. The somewhat marginalized Drexler is still building all sorts of roadmaps and hopes that they will be especially interesting to "forward-looking Asian countries striving for change."
By the way, Smoly is also no stranger to the pathos of saving humanity, but his approach is somewhat more realistic. The Earth faces 10 challenges and five of them are capable of overcoming nanotechnology. True, the professor says that the lack of clean water is more important than the lack of food, but this is a pardonable misconception (ultrafine powders and membranes have been filtering liquids for decades, and food is not nano, but biotech).
When in 1989 Don Eigler put together the letters IBM from 35 xenon atoms, it seemed that Prometheus heights were already close. Everyone was convinced of the power and potential of nanoscience. However, 20 years have passed and the achievements of nano in "changing the face of humanity" in comparison with IT are as small as a nanometer next to a meter. What is the difference between an email and a regular one? And what is the difference between a cigarette with a conventional filter and a cigarette with a "nanotech"?
The American National Science Foundation funded the Nano-Hype study, the foreword to which was written by the architect of the US nanoprogram, Mikhail Roko. The final book says that most of the "nanotowars" available on the market are the fruit of a slight modification of conventional materials science. And the market itself still consists of sellers of not very complex nanotubes, nanowires, etc., and if it develops further in the same direction, high-tech will give way to marketing. There is still a long way to go before the production of products implying full-fledged manipulation of individual atoms and molecules. So far, "life itself changes" is just scratch-resistant paint. Nevertheless, the word "nanotechnology", as the author concludes, still correlates with the most ambitious projects such as Drexler's self-assembling nanorobots. There is a stratification of the desired and the observed. Ubiquitous nanotechnology is not visible not only to ordinary people.
The book directly talks about the danger of the formation of a "nanobubble", the desire of scientists and entrepreneurs to get funding for a fashionable concept. This aspiration is one of the main reasons for the flourishing of expectations of great changes. There are many others. All together, they allow us to believe that if there were no nanotechnology, they would be worth inventing.
For example, the second reason is the incredible abundance of analytical centers that profitably churn out reports with big names, intermediaries who arrange discussions about the dangers of gray slime in civil society, nanoblogs and mini–media, associations and foundations with their forecasts for 30 years ahead and poorly justified volumes of future markets. This is not an academic environment, and it is very difficult to control the quality in it. I note that reports and predictions of the emergence of various super-attractive technologies are multiplying in an era when governments are especially afraid of being late to the division of high-tech profits.
The third reason is the close relationship between nano and ultra–fashionable, but so far expensive green technologies: solar panels, desalination, etc. Greening now claims to be a new ideology, especially in Europe.
The fourth, already mentioned, is that nanotechnology serves as the basis for a significant part of the new age worldview. There is also the term Nanotech Age, which is very popular. He met back in the 1992 SimEarth game.
Fifth: nanotechnology is an umbrella brand that covers the widest subject field in its current expansive interpretations. With such a scale, the chances of success in at least a couple of areas are very high.
Finally, it is simply necessary to feed with promises after cash injections, not only Dmitry Medvedev, but also NSF is engaged in this. Jumping into the world nanopoed, we must go. They say the first sights are not far away.
Of course, many wonderful scientists and entrepreneurs are fruitfully engaged in nanotechnology. But it seems to them that all this hype not only helps, but also hinders.
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22.10.2009