Global biopharmaceutical market: dynamics and forecast

Analysis of the global biopharmaceutical market for 2003-2006.Remedium Magazine, No. 5-2007

The biopharmaceutical market of the beginning of the XXI century is characterized by active development and growth. The main advantages of the biopharmaceutical market are the rapid and efficient development of production capacities, the development of effective drugs, and the active expansion of such segments as bioinformatics and diagnostics.

Analysis of the global biopharmaceutical market for 2003-2005The volume of global sales of the biopharmaceutical market for the period 2003-2005 increased from 52.6 to 70.8 billion dollars, i.e. by 18.2 billion dollars, or by 34.6%.

Such results, indicating the positive dynamics of the biopharmaceutical market, make it attractive for the largest pharmaceutical companies (Fig. 1). 

The share of the biopharmaceutical market from the total global pharmaceutical market is 10.5-11.7%. And this indicator tends to grow. The development of the biopharmaceutical market is due to the use of the latest biotechnologies and computer science.

During the analyzed period, the growth rate of the biopharmaceutical market increased from 15.3 to 16.6%, which exceeds the same indicator for the global pharmaceutical market by 3-9%. However, the degree of development of the global biopharmaceutical market in its regional segments varies. The largest number of biopharmaceutical companies - 1,500 - is located in the United States, with revenues of $ 56 billion. 1,245 companies with revenues of $ 12 billion are located in Europe, and only 700 companies - with revenues of $ 2 billion - in the Asia-Pacific region. The main share of the global biopharmaceutical market - 58% - belongs to the USA, the share of Europe is 22%, Japan - 9%. The significant difference between the regional segments of the biopharmaceutical market is explained by the less strict American legislation on registration of biopharmaceutical products than in European countries and Japan. In 2002, the greatest demand was for drugs of the erythropoietin class, the sales volume of which reached $4 billion by that time. The leaders in the development of erythropoietin products are companies such as Erypo/Procrit, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson.

The biopharmaceutical market can be characterized as the most knowledge-intensive, with great potential for further development. Because of this, a significant indicator of the level of development of the biopharmaceutical market is the ratio of demand and capacity.

The capacity of the global biopharmaceutical market for the period 2003-2006 increased from 2.24 to 7.88 billion dollars, i.e. by 5.64 billion dollars, or 3.5 times, which indicates the active development of the biopharmaceutical market and its further improvement.

At the same time, the volume of demand for the same period increased from 1.32 to 6.12 billion dollars - by 4.8 billion, or 4.6 times, which also speaks in favor of further development of the biopharmaceutical market (Fig. 2).

I would like to note that during the analyzed period, the volume of market capacity constantly prevailed over demand, which indicates the uneven development of the biotechnological market. At the same time, the growth rate of demand in the biopharmaceutical market exceeds 1.3 times the growth rate of its capacity, which indicates the growing demand for biotechnologies in the pharmaceutical market. Such a gap between demand and capacity indicates some instability of the global biopharmaceutical market, characteristic of the formation period.

But, despite some instability in the development of the biopharmaceutical market, the difference between capacity and demand for the period 2003-2006 decreased from 69 to 28% in favor of the first indicator. Such results indicate further harmonization of the biopharmaceutical market and its stabilization.

Analysis of the world market of types of biotechnologies for 2003-2007.Diagnostic drugs can be called one of the most promising segments of the biopharmaceutical market: for the period 2003-2006, there was an active growth in sales volume - by 2-3 times.

It should be noted that the volume of sales of molecular and gene diagnostic drugs for the period 2003-2006 increased from 556.3 to 787.2 million dollars, i.e. by 230.9 million dollars, or 41.5%. At the same time, the growth rate for the analyzed period amounted to 12.1-12.3% per year, which indicates the stable development of this segment of the global biopharmaceutical market (Fig. 3).

The volume of sales of protein chips for the period 2003-2006 increased sharply from 169.7 to 528.9 million dollars, i.e. by 300%. However, the annual growth rate tended to decrease: from 75.2% in 2003 to 30% in 2006. Nevertheless, an increase of 30% is 2 times higher than the growth rate of the global biopharmaceutical market.

Such results indicate an increase in demand for this type of diagnostic drugs, as well as positive prospects for the development of this market segment.

During the period 2003-2006, there was a significant difference between the sales volumes of molecular and gene diagnostic drugs and protein chips, which amounted, respectively, to 386.6 (2003) and 258.3 million dollars (2006). At the same time, a decrease in this difference may indicate some stabilization in the segment of diagnostic drugs.

In 2007, the market volume of molecular and gene diagnostics, according to Frost & Sullivan analysts, will amount to 884.2 million dollars, which is higher than in 2006 by 97 million dollars, or 12.3%. Its stable growth will continue. The global market of protein chips also tends to grow, and in 2007 its volume, having increased by $ 137 million, or by 25.9%, will reach $ 665.9 million. The progressive development of diagnostic biopharmaceuticals markets makes them attractive for investment (Fig. 4).

The volume of the global gene therapy market for the period 2005-2006 increased sharply from 34.5 to 85.2 million dollars - by 50.7 million, which indicates its active development. This segment of the market is quite promising, and for the period 2006-2010 it is projected to grow from 85.2 to 1000.082 million dollars - by 914.882 million, or 11.7 times.

The undoubted potential of the gene therapy market is evidenced by the high growth rate, which in the period 2006-2007 amounted to more than 200%. Further, it is expected to decrease slightly: for the period 2007-2008 - up to 112%, during 2008-2010 - up to 76%.

Thus, the most active development of the gene therapy market is planned in the coming years, which contributes to the expansion of the activities of many pharmaceutical companies.

Analysis of sales volumes of recombinant drugs for the period 2003-2005 shows that erythropoietin, interferon, drugs based on G-CSF, antitumor agents were in great demand (Fig. 5). The volume of sales of erythropoietins increased from 9411 to 10762 million dollars (by 14.3%), interferons from 5529 to 6582 million dollars (by 19%), and drugs based on G-CSF - from 2677 to 3504 million dollars (by 30.8%).

Almost all of the presented recombinant drugs for the period 2003-2005 tended to increase sales, with the exception of interferon, whose sales volume decreased by 3.1% over the period 2004-2005.

The constant growth in sales of recombinant drugs in the range of 15-30% indicates a steady demand for this type of biopharmaceutical market products. Despite the fact that the growth rate of recombinant drugs is lower than that of gene therapy and diagnostic drugs, this market segment is more stable and developed.

Analysis of the global bioinformatics market for 2003-2005The most intensively developing branch of biotechnology today is bioinformatics, which is located at the intersection of biology and computer science and uses various types of software, statistical and mathematical modeling, algorithms and database management for data collection and analysis.

One of the progressive directions of biopharmaceutical informatics can be called the production of biochips used for diagnostic purposes, evaluation of the effectiveness of therapy, prognosis of the course of the pathological process (Fig. 6).

The analysis of the global biochip market for the period 2003-2005 shows an increase in its volume from 500 to 950 million dollars, which indicates a high rate of development of this segment of the biopharmaceutical market. Despite the fact that the biochip market occupies 1-2% of the total biopharmaceutical market, this segment has great prospects for expansion. At the same time, it should be taken into account the fact that the first biochips appeared in the 90s of the last century. Therefore, for a segment that has existed for about 10 years, the growth rate of 42.8-33% can be considered high, contributing to the further expansion of its boundaries (Fig. 7).

Analysis of the dynamics and structure of the global biochip market for the period 2003-2005 shows that the leader of this market is DNA chips, whose sales volume increased from 46.1 to 76.3 million dollars - by 30.2 million, or 65.5%. The volume of sales of protein chips in 2003 and 2005 amounted, respectively, to 33.9 and 7.2 million dollars. and it had a downward trend - by 78.7%. A similar trend is observed in relation to laboratory chips, the sales volume of which decreased from $ 20 to $ 16.5 million - by $ 3.5 million, or by 17.5%.

Thus, the most promising and promising is the bioinformatics market, the volume of which by 2008, thanks to the rapid development of information technologies, may increase to $ 2.1 billion.

The main trends of the biopharmaceutical marketBy 2008-2010, it is planned to develop and release about 50 new biotechnological products, which will lead to a significant development of the biopharmaceutical market.

In addition, according to forecasts, over the next 5 years, 25% of all manufactured medicines will be represented by biotechnology products.
Further development of the biopharmaceutical market will stimulate the development of the generic drugs market, because since 2005 and over the next years, the patent of many biopharmaceuticals, including such as insulin and human growth hormone, expires. Thus, the bioengineering market will develop on the basis of biopharmaceuticals if the obstacles associated with achieving bioequivalence are successfully overcome.

Further development of the biopharmaceutical market will be global. The countries of Europe and Asia, especially China and India, will be actively involved in this process.

The most important trend of the biopharmaceutical market is the development of outsourcing, i.e. third-party involvement of third parties to perform various works to ensure the production of biotechnological drugs. In 2004, approximately 35% of biopharmaceutical companies used outsourcing to develop their activities, and by 2008 this figure will increase to 47-50%.

The largest companies that produce raw materials for biotechnological drugs are Abbott Bioresearch Center, Avecia Biotechnology, BioReliance, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cambrex Biopharmaceutical Services, Dowpharma, GlaxoSmithKline Biopharmaceuticals, Lonza Custom Manufacturing, Diosynth-RTP, Sandoz GmbH and DSM Biologics.

More than 300 products developed on the basis of biotechnologies are at various stages of clinical trials. These drugs are intended for the treatment of diseases such as Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, multiple sclerosis, arthritis, AIDS.

Portal "Eternal youth" www.vechnayamolodost.ru17.10.2008