A disappearing world Power

German scientists analyzed mortality and fertility in Russia
Nikita Jolkver, Deutsche Welle

The Berlin Institute of Population and Development has published a large-scale analysis of demographic processes in the countries of the former USSR. A large section in this study is devoted to the problem of fertility and mortality in Russia.

"Disappearing World Power" is the name of a study prepared by the Berlin Institute of Population and Development and devoted to demographic trends in Russia and other post–Soviet countries. The main conclusion of the scientists is actually formulated in the title of the report, which is translated and published also in Russian.

The uniqueness of this work is that for the first time in many years, the object of research and comparative analysis was not individual republics of the former USSR, but the post-Soviet space as a whole.

After the "baby boom"In some regions of this colossal territory, in particular, in the three Slavic republics and the Baltic States, there are currently the same demographic problems as in Germany and other Western European countries.

This is a low birth rate, insufficient for the reproduction of the population. All these countries experienced a "baby boom" after the end of World War II. In the 1970s, the boom came to naught, the generation of parents of those years is now beginning to retire, and those who followed it were not so numerous.

The results of the study were presented at a press conference in Berlin by Professor Reiner Klingholz, Director of the Berlin Institute of Population and Development. He pointed to the aggravation of the situation in the western republics of the former USSR and the socialist camp states at the beginning of the critical 1990s. In Russia, by the end of the existence of the USSR, one woman gave birth to an average of 1.89 children, in the mid-1990s – only 1.16. If in 1990 two million babies were born in the RSFSR, then in Russia 10 years later – only 1.2 million.

Russian specificsIn all countries of Eastern and Central Europe, immediately after the radical reforms, the standard of living increased, and with it its duration.

In Russia, according to Professor Klingholtz, both the birth rate and life expectancy have decreased due to the deterioration of the financial situation of the general population.

The reforms in Russia, the study says, "had devastating consequences not only for the economic, but also for the mental state of people: drug and alcohol abuse affected their health. AIDS has become a serious problem, and the spread of tuberculosis has reached unprecedented proportions. In Russia, the average life expectancy for men has fallen to the level of 57 years – this is the lowest indicator of the post-war period."

In all industrially developed countries of the world, since the 1950s of the last century, life expectancy has steadily increased and in the mid-1960s it was not much lower in Russia than in France, Germany, Great Britain or the USA. But if in these four countries the life span continued to increase by about three years every ten years, in Russia it began to decrease. The exception is a short surge in the mid–80s, probably related to Mikhail Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign. Then the life expectancy curve in Russia went down again and began to rise smoothly only in the middle of the last decade.

Now Russians live to an average of 67 years, as in 1960. This is less than in Bangladesh, Klingholz compared. At the same time, Russian women live on average 13 years longer than men. There is no greater gap between the sexes, except for neighboring Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and the three Baltic countries, in other countries of the world," the study indicates.

Causes of mortality in RussiaFor the Russian pension fund, the professor continued, this is not bad, since only half of men generally live to the retirement age of 60.

From a third to a half of all deaths of men in Russia, one way or another, are associated with excessive alcohol consumption – these are direct poisoning, drunken homicides, suicide of alcoholics, and fatal road accidents caused by drunk drivers.

Stefan Sievert, an analyst at the Berlin Institute of Population and Development, drew attention to another Russian demographic feature – extreme regional differences in the birth rate and life expectancy, which are not present in other industrialized countries. Thus, women give birth to the least children in the Leningrad region – 1.2 (the average in Russia is now 1.5), and most of all in Chechnya – 3.4. This is the same as in Tajikistan or the countries of North Africa.

For more than 70 years, people in the post-Soviet space on average live only in the Baltic States, where the standard of living is higher, as well as in the North and South Caucasus, where they drink less and the climate is better. In the northern regions, many still do not live even to the age of 60.

The probability of being killed in Russia is 20 times higher than in EU countriesThe difference between Russia and Germany in the statistics on life expectancy is not only that Germans live much longer, but also that in Russia many die at working age.

Scientists analyzed the indicators in the EU countries and in Russia and came to the conclusion that only infectious and cancer diseases are comparable as causes of premature death, although they die more often in the Russian Federation, but not at times. But diseases of the circulatory system take the lives of Russians – in terms of 100 thousand people – five times more often than Europeans. Russians are about as many times more likely to become victims of poisoning, crimes and road accidents. The probability of being killed in Russia is 20 times higher than in the EU countries.

Moreover, alcohol plays a decisive role in most of these deaths, in particular, in 72 percent of homicides and 42 percent of suicides. As doctors have recently proved, it is often excessive alcohol consumption that causes dangerous cardiovascular diseases. So it turns out that the life of Russians ends on average six years earlier than the Chinese and 13 years earlier than the Germans.

Who should work and serve in the army?The coincidence of several negative demographic factors at once – the retirement of a large post-war generation, the achievement of working age by a small generation of the 1990s and high mortality – will lead, according to the forecast of German demographers, to the fact that by 2020 the able-bodied population of Russia will annually decrease by about one million people, and by 2030 it will decrease by 20 percent. compared to the level of 2010.

This, in turn, will lead to disastrous consequences not only for the country's economy, but also pose a threat to its security. Professor Rainer Klingholz recalled that the length of the Russian borders that need to be guarded is 20 thousand kilometers, and the army requires about 600 thousand recruits every year.

In 2008, there were still about a million young men of military age in Russia, but by 2017 this number will decrease to 630 thousand. Not everyone can be drafted into the army: some will go to higher education after school, others will be found unfit for combat service. Moreover, the professor added, you can simply buy a corresponding certificate in Russia. So recruits will soon be in short supply.

This means that the Russian army will have to be content with not the best replenishment of poorly educated young people, drug addicts, alcoholics and criminals," the German researcher said.

Sergey Zakharov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Demography of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, acted as the scientific editor of the report. In an interview with Deutsche Welle, he said that the Russian policy aimed at increasing the birth rate in the country should be radically changed.

Deutsche Welle: Mr. Zakharov, how do you assess the demographic policy of the Russian government?

Sergey Zakharov: I assess this policy as a dead end, and it needs to be changed, and as soon as possible.

– How so? After all, considerable funds are allocated from the state budget to support the family and motherhood?

– In general, I am not against the state investing more in families, in children, in education, in healthcare. The words are all pronounced correctly, but the distribution of money, the placement of accents in this policy are wrong.

– And how, from your point of view, should these accents be placed?

– First of all, the migration problem should be addressed. It's for a long time, it's very serious and it's very expensive. It is necessary to pursue an active integration policy, which should be reasonable, balanced, and apply to this end the accumulated experience of all immigration countries.

– But it is impossible to solve all demographic problems of Russia at the expense of migrants alone, for example, such as high mortality, primarily of men of working age and low life expectancy for an industrially developed country.

– This is the second point. We need to more actively change those habits that explain our short life expectancy. These are both special educational programs and economic incentive measures that would encourage less risky behavior, especially among the young population. It is with young people that we must first of all work – so that Russian boys and girls drink less and pay more attention to their own health.

– And how to increase the birth rate in Russia? In this regard, a lot is already being done: subsidies for kindergartens are provided to needy families, the size of the lump-sum allowance for the birth of a child and parental allowance have been increased, there are benefits for non-working mothers, there is the so-called "maternity capital" for the second child…

– The family policy aimed at increasing the birth rate should be fundamentally changed. Emphasis should be placed on the possibility of combining work, profession with family and parental responsibilities, both for women and men.

It's time to move away from the monetary approach and purely financial investments, which may encourage someone to have children, but for others, on the contrary, serve rather as a hindering factor.

Paying for a child or paid maternity is a dead end. Most families in Russia live on two incomes: both husband and wife have permanent employment. For them, the limiting factor in having children is not so much income itself as thinking about what will happen if mom sits at home with a child. Or, if a kindergarten child is often sick, and she will often have to take sick leave to care for him. Such a mother loses her income, loses her qualifications – this is the most serious problem that is typical for many countries of the European Union.

The EU and its members are now reorienting family policy in this direction, realizing that the optimal combination of profession and family life is the most important factor. People do not want to risk either loss of income or loss of qualifications in the event of the birth of a child. It turns out that every child, despite all the subsidies, is a step into poverty. And then we have to start solving the problem of poverty instead of solving it before it appears.

Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru15.04.2011