Population ageing: a triumph and a challenge
"Aging is the triumph of civilization"
Alexander Kalinin, You can't talk about the elderly as a burden.
This position is shared by Gayane Safarova, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Deputy Director for Scientific Work of the St. Petersburg Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. She told Rosbalta about her vision of the situation.
– You call the aging process not a problem, but a phenomenon. Moreover, you say that this process is a "triumph of civilization". Does this idea not fit too well with our reality?
– The phrase "aging is not a problem, it's a phenomenon" appeared decades ago. It was pronounced in English. When a person who speaks Russian says the word "problem", everyone is immediately alarmed. The aging of an individual organism is only one side, but we are talking about the aging of the population. The point is that the proportion of elderly people in the total population is increasing. What is the problem? Here your faucet is leaking – this is a problem. This is an unforeseen, undesirable event. And the aging of the population is a natural global long–term process.
Take Boris Akunin, "The Whole World is a Theater." On the very first page you will find the phrase: "To grow old" means "to mature", that is, to become not worse, but better – stronger, wiser, more complete." The aging of the population is a triumph of civilization. 2012 marked the 10th anniversary of the adoption of the international plan of action on ageing, the so-called "Madrid plan". The report "Population Aging: A Triumph and a Challenge" was released. It stated that never before in the history of mankind has there been such a life expectancy as now. It's really a triumph. And one of the driving forces of the aging process of the population is precisely the increase in life expectancy.
– And who in general can be classified as "elderly people"?
– It was not only you and I who discussed this. Here you have Plato, Hippocrates, Ibn Sina (known in Europe as Avicenna), and Chinese philosophers. There were, for example, parallels with the seasons. And Ibn Sina generally believed that the word "old age" is inappropriate – it is necessary to talk about the advancement in years. Anyway, the ancient philosophers-sages agreed on this issue at the age of 70 years. But what are we observing now? The concept of an elderly person is largely connected not with the biological properties of the human body, but with labor legislation. The population is aggregated into three age groups: children, people of working age, the elderly. At the same time, the limits of working age are established by law. It turns out that the elderly in our country are women aged 55 and older and men over 60. In Western Europe, everything revolves around the age of 65-67 years.
– Can labor legislation be a measure of who is an elderly person and who is not?
– That's another story. But all traditional indicators of aging rely on this classification. This is the reality. The elderly are considered to be those whose age is older than the able-bodied. But there are alternative approaches to measuring aging. This is a separate big topic. It should be understood that demographic development keeps pace with socio-economic development. The past was characterized by high levels of fertility and mortality. In modern developed countries, on the contrary, there is a low birth rate and a low mortality rate. A significant increase in the birth rate in Russia is not predicted. The share of elderly people will increase, and, therefore, we need to prepare the infrastructure. We must prepare our society for aging. Even Mongolia or Bhutan are already interested in this issue, although it would seem that the percentage of elderly people in these countries is small.
– Is it considered that an aging society is bad? Therefore, the conclusion suggests itself, is a large number of young people a good thing?
– And where can we observe an aging society? These are highly developed countries. For example, in Japan, almost a third of the population is over 60 years old. And countries with young populations are mostly located in Africa, where life expectancy is low, and the level of this very life is low. In addition, countries with a demographically "young" population are characterized by political instability. Think of Egypt, other recent Arab riots. There is a huge percentage of unemployed youth in these countries. So, before we talk about what is good and what is bad, we need to understand the process.
– And what does Russia represent in this regard? Where is our place?
– First of all, if we look at the age structures of our federal subjects, we will see a huge variety. We have a huge regional differentiation of indicators of demographic processes and, as a result, age structures of the population. So, in the North Caucasus, we have an age structure with a high proportion of young people and very low aging rates.
– In which regions can you observe the opposite situation than the one in the North Caucasus?
– In St. Petersburg. A high percentage of the elderly population and a low birth rate. It's like different countries.
– If we talk about the "average temperature in the hospital", then where is Russia?
– There are reports of the UN "World population aging". According to the latest one (2013), Japan (32%) ranks first out of 201 countries in terms of the proportion of elderly people (60 years and older), followed by Italy (26.9%). These countries have a high life expectancy. Russia ranks 44th in this ranking (18.8%). I will mention that the lowest value of this indicator (0.9%) was observed in the UAE. We are quite "young", but the aging process in Russia is progressing, and issues related to aging should be of interest and importance to us. We need to take into account the experience of developed countries, but not try to mechanically transfer it to our soil. One of the troubles of the Russian media, Russian officials is their low demographic literacy, inability to interpret demographic indicators. For example, you can hear the phrase that "we have mortality, as in Africa, a shame." However, the fundamental difference is that in Africa there is a low life expectancy due to high infant mortality, and in our country because of the supermortality of men of working age. There are many similar examples. To make a conclusion on demographic plots, it is necessary to understand what is behind these or other indicators.
– And then how can society change its view on the aging process, on the elderly?
– This is, among other things, the task of the media. It is not necessary to inspire society, the elderly themselves, that they are a burden, a burden. For example, there is such a thing as demographic burden – this is the ratio of unemployed and working people. But children also belong to the unemployed. And yet, children are a potential that may not be realized yet. The elderly have created everything we have today. When an elderly person is constantly told that he is a ballast, then he himself begins to realize his uselessness. But the elderly are not a ballast, but a resource of society that needs to be used.
– Then how about raising the retirement age?
– I adhere to the point of view that life expectancy in Russia is not yet sufficient to raise the issue of raising the retirement age, especially for men. As for women, after some time, perhaps it will be possible to consider it. We have a lag in life expectancy in the elderly from economically developed countries is just as large, at least 5-6 years. The average Russian at the age of 60 has fewer years of life ahead of him than the average resident of economically developed European countries at the age of 65. Therefore, we need to think about how we can increase the employment of older people, and not just take away years of retirement from them. There are a million opportunities – part-time employment, flexible working hours, etc. Besides, there are many examples when the total dismissal of the elderly begins. Instead, they recruit young people without experience. We need to think about this problem, and not just drive a wedge between generations.
– Is the state interested in this issue? Do officials consult with scientists?
– I will say that everything is going on with programs and campaigns. Science and these campaigns exist in parallel. There is no long-term consistent policy on this issue.
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru09.02.2015