How to reduce the harm of smoking
Switching from cigarettes to vaping could save 87 million years of life
American scientists have proposed replacing the usual cigarettes with electronic ones. According to the optimistic scenario of such a strategy, 6.6 million premature deaths among smokers will be prevented in 10 years.
According to American statistics, two out of three people who have smoked for several years die prematurely from diseases associated with tobacco use. Therefore, tobacco control experts are looking for ways to gradually reduce the number of cigarettes smoked in the world, and in the future – to achieve a complete cessation of tobacco use ("endgame"). American scientists have proposed to start small: to reduce the harm from smoking by replacing "real" electronic cigarettes.
The main idea of this strategy is that e-cigarettes-"vapes" are much less toxic than classic cigarettes. At the same time, vaping allows the smoker to preserve the pleasure of the very process of inhaling smoke.
To prove the effectiveness of the proposed strategy, scientists have developed two sociological models based on different smoking cessation strategies. Both models predict the fate of a generation of 15-year-olds (for 2016) smokers in 2100.
The first model was called the "status quo". This model assumes that smokers will gradually reduce the number of cigarettes smoked and be treated for nicotine addiction. The second model assumes that smokers will gradually switch to electronic cigarettes.
When developing the "status quo" model, scientists used information about the gender, age of smokers, as well as the time of onset and mortality from smoking, accumulated from 1965 to 2010, when similar programs designed to combat smoking were conducted in the United States.
The model for replacing "classic" cigarettes with electronic ones was built on the basis of current models of using "vapes" and known data on their lesser harm. This is an optimistic scenario. However, the model also assumes a pessimistic scenario, suggesting that e-cigarettes will be more harmful than current science believes.
Based on the data obtained after analyzing both models, scientists have made two forecasts of the average life expectancy and mortality of people from 2016 to 2100: one for the "status quo" model, and the second for the replacement model of "classic" electronic cigarettes.
Although the "status quo" model assumes a complete cessation of smoking, scientists have legitimate doubts that by 2100 humanity will reach the long-awaited "endgame". Researchers suggest that by 2100 the number of smokers will decrease (now 42.1 million people smoke in the United States, this forecast does not seem surprising) and will reach 26.1 million people.
If humanity switches to electronic cigarettes, the number of smokers will decrease even more: according to the optimistic scenario, by 2100 there will be 19.5 million of them. Scientists are sure that this will happen because some of the people who switched to electronic cigarettes will eventually be able to quit smoking altogether. According to the pessimistic scenario, 24.4 million smokers will remain.
Thus, if humanity adheres to the "status quo" model, 248.6 million people (177.9 million men and 70.8 million women) are doomed to early death.
Compared to the "status quo" model, switching to e-cigarettes will reduce premature mortality by 6.6 million people and increase the life expectancy of all smokers in the United States by a total of 86.7 million years. According to the pessimistic scenario, premature mortality will decrease by 1.6 million people and prevent the loss of 20.8 million years of life.
The researchers hope that if current smokers really switch to electronic cigarettes, humanity will be able to avoid many senseless premature deaths in the future.
The study was published in the journal Tobacco Control (Levy et al., Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes).
Portal "Eternal youth" http://vechnayamolodost.ru