The number of patients with diabetes in the world will grow to 1.31 billion by 2050
Experts estimate that by 2050, 1.31 billion people will be diagnosed with diabetes. In almost half of the countries the prevalence of the disease will exceed 10%.International expert group GBD 2021 Diabetes Collaborators estimated the prevalence of diabetes mellitus types 1 and 2 in 204 countries. The results of the study are published in The Lancet.
Diabetes is one of the main causes of death and disability, regardless of country of residence, sex and age. Researchers estimated the increase in cases from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of cases of type 1 and type 2 diabetes, the impact of risk factors, including obesity, and made a prediction for 2050.
In 2021, there were 529 million people worldwide with diabetes. The overall prevalence was 6.1%. The highest rates were in North Africa and the Middle East (9%) and the Pacific Islands (12%); the lowest were in East Africa (2.9%). In Russia, the overall incidence of diabetes was 4% in 2021.
In 204 countries, more than 80% of the incidence was from type 2 diabetes. The number of years of life lost due to diabetes (DALYs) reached 79.2 million in 2021, with type 2 diabetes causing a loss of 95.4% of DALYs.
Over the past 30 years, the number of years of life lost due to diabetes has increased by nearly 190%. The greatest increase was in North Africa and the Middle East (348.3%). In Russia, the DALY was 206.7%, which is significantly higher than in Eastern Europe (74%) and Western Europe (62.6%).
The greatest impact on the growth of DALYs in type 2 diabetes is caused by excess body weight. In 2021, obesity accounted for 52.2% of life years lost to type 2 diabetes, an increase of 24.3% since 1990.
By 2050, more than 1.31 billion people worldwide are projected to have diabetes. The highest prevalence is expected in North Africa and the Middle East (16.8%), Latin America and the Caribbean (11.3%). Prevalence above 10% is expected in 89 countries worldwide.