Global fertility rates have halved in 60 years
Calculation of the global total fertility rate showed that it more than halved between 1950 and 2021, from 4.84 to 2.23. As reported in The Lancet, fertility rates declined in all countries and territories, with the rate remaining above 2.1 in 2021 only in 94 countries and territories (at this value of the rate, population reproduction is observed). In Russia, this indicator reached 1.48 in 2021.
The concept of demographic transition states that societies are gradually moving from a situation of high fertility and high mortality with a final predominance of the young over the elderly to a situation of low fertility and low mortality with an increasingly elderly population. This transition is associated with a decline in the working-age population, which is why sociologists have developed the theory of the demographic dividend. According to it, a decline in fertility temporarily leads to an increase in the proportion of working-age adults, stimulating economic growth and eventually restoring fertility. However, low fertility rates can, over time, lead to the formation of inverted demographic pyramids, with a growing number of elderly people and a shrinking working-age population.
Demographic data for the five years preceding 2021 show that the total fertility rate, which reflects the number of children a woman would have on average during her reproductive years, has fallen below replacement level in some countries - the minimum needed to replace generations of the population in the absence of migration - with no evidence of subsequent recovery. Such a situation can lead to population decline and redistribution of resources (including health resources), which affects economic processes and the well-being of the population. Therefore, sociologists try to estimate global demographic indicators in order to predict the processes underlying population size and reproduction.
The Global Burden of Disease Collaboration on Fertility and Projections estimated global fertility rates from 1950 to 2021 using regression models summarising data from civil registration and sample registrations, 1,455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and projected changes in these rates. In 2021, 129 million live births were registered worldwide, showing an increase relative to 1950 with 92.7 million live births and a decrease relative to the peak year of 2016 with 142 million live births.
It is noteworthy that until 2011, South Asia led the way, with one in four children born globally, before Sub-Saharan Africa took over with nearly one in three. The global total fertility rate in 2021 was 2.23, down from 4.84 in 1950 and 3.61 in 1980. That is, the average woman had 4 to 5 children in 1950 and 2 to 3 children in 2021.
At the national level, estimates of the total fertility rate in 2021 range from 0.82 in South Korea to 6.99 in Chad, with 110 out of 204 countries having below-replacement fertility (fertility rate below 2.1). In Russia in 2021, this indicator reached 1.48, while in 1950 it was 2.77. According to scientists, there were 1.35 million live births in Russia in 2021 (which agrees with Rosstat data).
The collaboration predicts that fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide, from a global fertility rate of 2.21 in 2022 to 1.83 in 2050 and 1.59 in 2100. Between 2021 and 2100, all countries and territories except South Korea, Andorra, the Bahamas and Kuwait will experience a decline in their total fertility rates. The countries with the highest expected fertility rates in 2050 will be Chad (4.81) and Niger (5.15), and in 2100 will be Tonga (2.45) and Samoa (2.57). The countries with the lowest expected fertility rates in 2050 are South Korea (0.82) and Puerto Rico (0.84), and in 2100 are Bhutan (0.69) and Maldives (0.77). In Russia, by 2100, the total fertility rate may fall to 1.21.
Despite a number of limitations noted by the authors of the study (for example, incomplete data from some regions or simplified models in calculating fertility in the past), this work clearly shows a trend in fertility around the world: while most countries are approaching sustained low fertility, relatively high fertility in some low-income countries and territories may lead to a clear demographic divide between a subgroup of low-income countries and the rest of the world The authors note that addressing such problems will require focused and collaborative work by international humanitarian organisations and, above all, the United Nations.